The Power Of Imagination In Planning

In 1971, a frustrated track coach sat down to breakfast with his wife. He’d been looking for a shoe that would give his runners better traction and grip without heavy metal spikes, which were tearing up his university’s brand-new track.

As he watched his wife make waffles that morning, the idea struck him: what if he could put the square groves of a waffle pattern on the soles of running shoes?

Although his first attempt ruined his wife’s waffle iron, Bill Bowerman was onto something. With the help of his business partner, Phil Knight, he pursued his idea.

Today, millions of runners and other athletes sport the iconic swoosh that the brand would adopt. Nike is now a multi-billion-dollar company recognized around the world.

All thanks to one man’s imagination.

What is Imagination?

In their 2020 article “Competing on Imagination,” authors Martin Reeves and Jack Fuller define imagination as “the ability to think counterfactually.” They posit that imagination allows us to look at what does not yet exist but could and then create and shape a new reality.

We see the power of imagination all through history. Though he didn’t bring it into reality, Leonardo da Vinci imagined a helicopter—which certainly exists in many forms and has many uses today. After World War I, a company that had overproduced its cotton gauze used by the military imagined other uses for the same product, and Kleenex was born. In 1994, Jeff Bezos imagined an online bookstore that would “house” millions of titles for purchase. Now, the iconic Amazon.com “big smile” logo is familiar worldwide.

All these examples demonstrate the value of counterfactual thinking. For da Vinci, human flight was not a present reality—but he imagined a future where it could be. In an era of reusable kerchiefs, the concept of one-time-use, disposable tissues ran counter to reality—but imaginative leaders helped shape a new reality. At a time when most people still browsed physical bookstores, Jeff Bezos imagined a new reality of online shopping that eventually went far beyond book sales.

Imagination is vital to innovation, but it’s also an important skill to bring to other functions and disciplines—including planning. As our Kleenex and Amazon examples show, innovation is essential, but envisioning a future that puts your product into a wide range of hands requires counterfactual thinking.

Here are four ways this counterfactual thinking can improve your planning process.

The Value of Imagination in Planning

1. It Helps Create New Connections

Bill Bowerman may not have been actively thinking about his shoe problem when he sat down for breakfast in 1971, but his brain was probably working on that problem in the background. When he saw the waffle pattern, his brain reached out and latched onto this new connection, a phenomenon related to the Zeigarnik effect.

In planning, this kind of connection-building might involve combining two current products or services to produce a new offering, retooling an unused factory to build a different product, or even restructuring your organization to better align incentives with goals. What connections between customer needs, current capabilities, and future possibilities could help you shape your organization’s future?

2. It Helps Solve Problems

The Kleenex people had a problem—they had too much product with no particular use. Understanding the need to find a new customer base, they looked beyond injured soldiers and looked to women who needed a durable product for makeup removal.

Whatever your particular business challenges are, counterfactual thinking can help solve them. Too much inventory? Perhaps there’s a new market you haven’t considered. Too much physical space now that more workers are remote? Maybe there’s a new way to use that space besides just subletting it. What are the facts that run counter to your current reality that could help you shape a solution?

3. It Helps You Project Into the Future

Jeff Bezos imagined a world where he would sell far more than books. That vision allowed him to strategize for the long term. He started surveying customers about what products they would purchase and then built a company that would provide what they wanted.

As you consider your long-term vision for your organization, ask the “what if” questions that will contribute to your ultimate goals.

Be willing to consider even things that seem unlikely or impossible. For example, when the COVID-19 pandemic hit and many stores suffered massive shortages, Texas grocery store chain H-E-B stood out in its response. The primary reason? Leaders had developed a comprehensive pandemic-response plan more than a decade earlier. This kind of future focus and scenario planning requires imagination.

4. It Hedges Against the Competition

Amazon was not the first online retailer, nor was Nike the first running shoe. But both companies combined innovation with imaginative strategy to stay ahead of others in their respective businesses—and even to set the pace and tone for future competitors.

By engaging the imagination, leaders can look at emerging technologies and trends and plan to meet customer needs—and occasionally create needs they didn’t know they had. For example, in a cell phone market dominated by RIM’s BlackBerry device, Apple introduced its first iPhone in 2007. It was the first time consumers had seen a full touchscreen device. While that first iPhone didn’t kill the BlackBerry, it was a death knell for a company that was reluctant to imagine a future without the iconic BlackBerry keyboard.

Now, in 2024, BlackBerry is a footnote in the smartphone race. Apple’s iPhone and Samsung phones long ago surpassed BlackBerry in market share. By the time the company’s leaders responded to trends and emerging technologies, it was too late, and in 2021, BlackBerry announced that it would no longer support its original operating system.

If BlackBerry’s leaders had engaged in more imaginative thinking, it’s possible they could have produced a product to rival the iPhone.

As your leaders plan, encourage more counterfactual thinking. Ask the “what if” questions. Play “Devil’s Advocate” by bringing up scenarios that seem impossible. Practice some cloud watching to boost opportunities for new connections and visions of the future. With a bit of imagination, you can help prepare your company for anything that comes along.

Self-Check

1. Do our leaders encourage or discourage counterfactual thinking?
2. What is one way we could boost imaginative thinking across the organization?
3. How could imagination help us plan for whatever comes next?